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电脑交易系统
提交者: admin 日期: 2008/8/30 阅读: 367
摘要: 研究结果的意义远远大于研究过程给投资者的启发,而同时由此产生的时间成本问题也显得非常突出。......

电脑交易系统统计结果的意义远远大于统计过程给投资者的启发,而同时由此产生的时间成本问题也显得非常突出。常常许多人在繁重的脑力劳动之外还要对一些单调的近似于体力劳动的画图、统计、计算等工作投入太多的精力和时间,后果就是投资者在面对市场的同时不能把工具直接应用于市场。20世纪的最大的革命电脑的出现切实的首先解决了一个工具的应用问题,使人脑在市场中得以解放,思维获得了一种延伸。也许开始电脑的出现应用者们也仅仅局限于其优秀的计算能力和统计功能,并没有意识到作为一种机械作用的电脑功能竟然作为了一种人工衍生智能在市场中发挥着其在不可忽视的作用。今天的投资者离开了另一种智能的辅助,面对市场的瞬息万变决策的问题就成为了各种的犹豫。在投资决策过程与博弈决策以及战争决策具有极高的相似性,对阵双方的胜负不但取决于双方的综合判断能力,同时也取决于双方的决断能力,即贯彻已形成决策的决心和能力。电脑作为个体智慧的综合和人类集体智慧的静态复制品,电脑则可利用机器的无理性去面对对手的生理弱点和心理弱点并去实现自身的理性。人工智能技术、模糊逻辑决策以及脑神经网络技术等方面的发展丰富和拓展了投资领域中电脑决策模型的设计方法和手段。
  电脑在市场操作中最广泛的应用在交易系统的设计中,一套良好的电脑交易系统必须对投资决策的各个相关环节作出明确的规定,且应符合投资者或使用者的心理特征、投资对象的统计特征以及投资资金的风险特征.应该具有完整性和客观性。所谓完整性,即对投资的一个完整的交易周期中的各个决策点,如进退点、再进退点等具有明确的规定。而客观性则为投资决策标准体现的唯一性。通过如此系统就具有了可重复性,而方法论和科学性也在于此。
  对于交易系统的优化与否则是一个两可的事实,即使优化后的系统也存在着一些缺陷,而不优化又容易导致系统的落后,于是市场中的变因起了主导作用。我们通常有两类问题要解决。一类是解决问题的结果和过程完全是合乎逻辑的和可预见的,因此我们只要对某种条件的刺激自动作出反应。这被称之为精确。另外一类问题是我们不能预见的,我们通常不知道是否有适用的规则或不知道选择哪个现成规则来解决问题。这种情况被称之为模糊。显然后一类过程是需要智能的。让我们看看第一类过程是否需要智能。第一类情况可以编程,因为我们知道在预期的情况下对于某种刺激该如何反应,或者我们确信通过逻辑可以得出准确的结果。这就是人工智能的工作方式也是优化后可以达到的效果。可是在市场中我们发现模糊的情况占了多数。其关键在于交易系统所产生的噪音水平是否达到了预期控制的标准。
常常优化后的系统或电脑越来越庞大的功能会让我们产生错觉,认为的人工智能是真正的智能优化配置。我们忽视了智能系统如果没有外部提示或引导则不具备选择规则的能力。当遇到新的、料想不到的和不断变化的情况时只有高级进化的生命才有这种能力。面对规则的选择是这些生命很普通的经历。于是我们即刻想到了自身,也从而会知道真正的主宰和工具在市场中的地位是不会改变的,即使改变了,也是一种托辞。 现代科技与数字化相结合只能够解决理性化的问题,并在这个范畴内大大超过人的能力。但是,智能系统或电脑交易是用来解决市场决策中的感性问题的,其最大的特点是其完全程序化而且不能选择规则。而当投资者处于市场当中的时候,预测不到的在某种情况下一项工作开始执行某个程序以实现系统自身的某个目标并不是任何程序的运行的条件已经完全达到,因为它有选择规则的内驱力。当然关键是要避免感性太过战胜理性。我们人类制定了大量的规则供我们选择,但是非生命人工智能只有一个规则可以运行,尽管这个规则要复杂得多而且可能要比我们大脑中的任何现成的规则都好。

假定一个人工智能系统有不只一个规则,这些规则就应该是相互独立的。这个系统就应该具有从中选择规则的能力。关键问题是它如何通过学习选择、改变这些规则或建立新规则。系统能否建立类似价值观的内在的动态平衡机制。我们永远无法用精确的方法实现模糊方式。


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