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从日本核泄漏谈公共危机与应急管理
提交者: admin 日期: 2011/12/8 阅读: 435
来源:《中国科学院院刊》
摘要: 摘要:公共危机管理不仅是人民安居乐业的基本保证,是全面构建社会主义和谐社会的重大战略问题;而且是国家安全和社会稳定的基石,是经济和社会发展的重要条件。本文以日本核泄漏为背景,拟从公共危机管理角度讨论如何建立政府应急管理,阐述“安而不忘危,治而不忘乱,存而不忘亡”之理念。

  

中国人民大学公共管理定量分析研究所   北京100872 

1 引言1.1 日本核泄漏事件的现实背景

    此次日本地震、海啸以及核泄漏事故之多米诺骨牌式灾难为全世界敲响了警钟,时至今日危机还在持续。

多年以来,日本政府以国家能源保障为由,无视地区、国家、甚至国际环境安全而全力发展核电是颇具争议的。日本从沸水堆与压水堆之技术争端,到引进设备技术与国产化之里程,政府鼎力支持本国核电企业,逐步成为全球第三核电大国,在不到38万平方公里的国土上,密布着55个核电站反应堆。而世界第一核电大国美国,其国土面积为日本的25倍,反应堆数量为104个,不到日本的2倍。日本的这55座核发电设施,实际上是对日本国内及国际社会的严重核威胁。

回溯历史,日本是唯一遭受核武灾难的国家,美国在二战结束前夕动用两颗原子弹,导致长崎、广岛人民饱受原子弹爆炸以及长期核辐射污染。核泄漏事件中,日本民众在危机面前表现出的秩序与品质则令人敬佩,而日本政府和东电公司在公共危机处理方面的失策与笨拙则令人遗憾。

通常在地震和海啸过后,民众或可回到家园,进行生活和经济的重建之路。由于辐射量超出平常值的6600倍,日本政府目前已撤离核电厂半径20公里内的近20万住民。政府今后会涉及更多的安置工作,可见东电公司的核泄漏事件已经引发了公共危机。

经济学认为公地作为一项资源或财产有许多拥有者,他们中的每一个都有使用权,但没有权利阻止其他人使用,从而造成资源过度使用和枯竭。悲剧在于每个当事人都知道资源将由于过度使用而枯竭,但每个人对阻止事态的继续恶化都感到无能为力,都抱着自私心态,从而加剧了事态的恶化。过度砍伐的森林、过度捕捞的渔业资源及污染严重的河流和空气,都是公地悲剧的典型例证。

客观地说,核泄漏事件在任何国家和地区引发公共危机的可能性是存在的。政府和企业如何处理公共危机,如何提高政府保障公共安全,如何加强政府自身建设,如何全面履行政府职能,以及如何提高行政决断能力是迫切需要解决的难题。

1.2  核电站技术与安全隐患

    1957年世界上第一个核电站运行以来,核电科学技术的发展主要经历了4个阶段,也即是所谓"四代"的发展历程。 第一代核电站是20世纪50年代至60年代初期兴建,这一阶段主要是解决有无核电站的问题,目前基本已停运。第二代核电站是20世纪60年代后期至80年代大批兴建、目前国际上仍在运行使用的核电站,压水堆和沸水堆核电站,统称轻水堆核电站,全世界现共有四百多座在运行,核电发电大约占全世界总发电量的20%,已具有13 000余堆年的运行经验。第三代轻水堆核电站已研制成功,采用简化系统、模块化设计、非能动安全等革命性措施,不仅降低了造价,缩短了建造周期,提高了经济性,而且安全性也大大提高,并即将大批兴建。第四代轻水堆核电站目前正在研发,是下一步将要兴建的核电站。它在现有轻水堆的基础上,采用固有安全措施,进一步简化了系统,通过一体化设计进一步提高了核电的经济性和安全性。

核电站科技含量极高,系统非常复杂,安全隐患众多,如何提高核电站的安全可靠性仍是一个棘手的问题。美国人海因里希曾经通过分析工伤事故的发生概率,提出了著名的海因里希法则,即300291。即当一个核电站有300个隐患或违章,必然要发生29起轻伤或故障,在这29起轻伤事故或故障中必然包含有1起重伤、死亡或重大事故。

1942122,著名科学家费米在美国芝加哥大学成功启动了世界上第一个核反应堆,此后各国纷纷投入研究和开发。目前,世界上约有400多个商业运营的核电站在运转,然而重大核电站安全事故屡屡发生。

1979328美国三里岛核电站发生核泄漏。198816日,美国俄克拉何马州的一座核电站,由于对核材料筒加热不当引起爆炸,造成1名工人死亡,100人受伤。1986426,世界上最严重的核事故在前苏联切尔诺贝利核电站发生。根据国际核事件分级表,切尔诺贝利核泄漏事故的等级为最高的7级。199211月,法国发生了最严重的核事故,3名工作人员未穿防护服进入一座核粒子加速器后受到污染。1998年到2002年期间,印度核电站共发生了6次核泄漏事故。1999年东京附近的一座核反应堆曾发生辐射泄漏,造成2名工人死亡。200489日,日本中部福井县美滨核电站再次发生蒸汽泄漏事故,导致4人死亡,7人受伤。20031229,韩国荣光核电厂5号机组发生核泄漏事故。20055月,英国塞拉菲尔德核电站的热氧再处理电厂因发生放射性液体泄漏事件被迫关闭。日本核泄漏事故发生后,各国政府做出积极反应,着手公布相关信息,对核电站进行安检,重新审察核电项目,甚至暂缓批准计划项目等。

1.3  发展核电是人类无奈的选择

    在进入20世纪后的工业化时代,能源和人类生存有着紧密的关系。能源危机拖慢了经济发展的速度,引发了社会与国际关系的动荡,也引发人们开始反思,在开源和节流上积极行动。以核电站为代表的动力核能的开发和利用就成为关注的热点。核能虽有安全隐患,但既便宜,又持久,作为一种利用高科技手段获取的新型能源,核能具有得天独厚的优越性。人类的能源危机从上个世纪起逐渐显现,随着资源的枯竭和运输压力的与日俱增,核电的经济性会进一步凸现出来。理论上说,1公斤的铀全部裂变所释放出的裂变能,大约相当于2500吨煤或2000吨的石油燃烧时所释放出的能量。一座百万千瓦的火力发电站需要350万吨的标准煤,而核能电站只需要30吨的低浓铀原料就可以。以不变价格预计,“快堆”电价将降低13,这就接近非核电电价水平了。

众所周知,核能利用的更高层次聚变,虽然目前理论和实际运用之间还有较大的距离,但是其前景更为科研人员所看好。核聚变的材料氘以重水的形式存在于海水中。1海水中的氘通过核聚变释放出的能量相当于300汽油燃烧释放出的能量。全世界海水中所含的氘通过核聚变释放的聚变能,可供人类在很高的消费水平下使用50亿年。

    化石能源终有耗尽之时,未来人类的能源需求也只能是利用核能。

1.4  核泄漏对中国核电建设的影响

    毫无疑问,此次日本核泄漏和爆炸事故对我国核电建设的影响是负面的。我国已经建成的核电站有秦山核电站、广东大亚湾核电站、田湾核电站和岭澳核电站。另外有许多在建的核电站。在建和规划中的核电站如广东的阳江核电站、浙江三门核电站、浙西核电站、辽宁红沿河核电厂、江西省九江市核电站、重庆涪陵核电站、桃花江核电站、山东威海核电站、烟台海阳核电厂、福建宁德核电站位、安徽芜湖核电站等,其中沸水堆、重水堆和压水堆各类俱全。在堆技术上,福岛核电站属于沸水堆,其工作原理是直接用反应堆产生的蒸汽去推动汽轮机发电,蒸汽中可能包含大量放射性物质,由于少了一个环路,其安全性较主流的二代堆技术(即压水堆)低了一个级别,并且如果出现紧急情况需要排放蒸汽,则放射性物质也随之排出,此次事故便是属于这种情况。压水堆内插入了一个热交换器,冷却水采用两回路系统,用于发电的两回路蒸汽中不会含有放射性物质,如遇紧急情况需要排放两回路系统的蒸汽,也不会有放射性物质外泄。正在沿海建设并将向内陆推广的第三代AP1000核电技术则不存在动能问题,因其采用非能动安全系统,就是在反应堆上方顶着多个千吨级水箱,一旦遭遇紧急情况,不需要交流电源和应急发电机,仅利用地球引力等自然力就可驱动核电厂的安全系统,自动冷却反应堆堆芯,带走堆芯余热,并对安全壳外部实施喷淋,从而恢复核电站的安全状态。以秦山核电站为例,设计上能抵御12级龙卷风以及地震、喷气式飞机的撞击,在最严重事故情况下能抵御内部的高温和高压,防止放射性物质的外泄。中国核能发展战略已由过去的适当发展转为现在的积极发展。我国核电发展规划已明确了热中子反应堆、快中子增殖反应堆、聚变堆三步走的发展战略。现有的核电站与国际上正在运行的压水堆核电站处于同一水平,属第二代核电站,已基本具备发展压水堆核电站的能力和条件,辅以国外技术引进,压水堆核电站将作为我国核电的主力堆型。虽然我国在运核电技术的安全等级高于福岛核电站技术,此次事件仍会使得人们对核电安全性产生忧虑,重视程度大幅提升,核电项目审批程序和电站建设进度将受到影响。

2  危机管理与公共危机

2.1 危机管理

    我国古代文化博大精深,“存而不忘亡,安而不忘危,治而不忘乱,思所以危则安矣,思所以乱则治矣,思所以亡则存矣”是中国古代居安思危的危机思想的经典概括。危机管理这一概念是美国学者于20世纪60年代提出的。危机管理作为一门学科,是决策学的一个重要分支,它首先被运用于外交和国际政治领域。20世纪60-80年代,西方危机管理的研究出现一次高潮,研究领域从政治领域向经济、社会领域扩展,从自然灾害领域向公共危机管理领域扩展,危机管理成为一门学科,形成了企业危机管理和公共危机管理两个既独立发展又相互融合的学科分支,大量危机管理著作出版,危机管理成为大学的学科和专业,也成为一种社会职业。西方国家在危机管理研究方面已形成了不少危机管理理论,主要包括三阶段模型、四阶段模型、五阶段模型和六阶段模型等。目前世界各国广泛将上述理论直接应用于危机管理实践,并且各国根据自己的国情形成不同的危机管理模式,例如俄国模式(大总统、大安全)、美国模式(强总统、大协调)、以韩模式(小核心、小范围)、日本模式(强内阁、大安全)等。虽然这些模式各有差异,但纵观世界各国的危机管理实践,其基本经验有以下几个共同点:一是有一整套系统的安全法律法规体系;二是有一个权力很大、以政府首脑为核心的中枢指挥系统,组成危机管理体制;三是有一套严格高效的情报收集和分析即信息管理系统;四是政府对危机的客观、积极态度;五是社会民众对待危机的心理承受能力以及对政府的信任程度。

2.2 公共危机

    一般说来,公共危机的类型有四:一是误解性危机。政府并非危机之直接责任人,没有出现任何损害公众的事件,但是,由于各种原因,被公众误解怀疑。二是事故性危机,即由于政府自身的失职、失误,或者管理中出现问题,或者服务上出现问题而引发的危机事件。三是敌对势力危机,如莫斯科大剧院、美国911等恐怖事件就是这类公共危机。四是自然灾害型危机,即重大自然灾害导致政府必须面对的公共危机,如地震、大雪、洪水等严重影响公众生命财产的自然灾难。突发事件的发生,具有突发性和紧迫性等特征,如果不及时决策,采取强有力措施控制,则会导致事态进一步恶化,给社会带来更加严重的后果。

公共危机的突发性、紧迫性、公共性等特点要求政府应急处理必须迅速有效。因为公共危机一旦发生,伴随着大众媒体介入,会立即引起社会公众的广泛关注。例如,为了坚定公众信心,日本内阁官房长官枝野幸男在召开新闻发布会时,脱下了浅蓝色防灾服,换上了西装,借此表示,政府工作已经过渡到灾后重建阶段,此举则颇受好评。

近期抢购食盐事件说明我国政府公共危机管理缺位,公众的恐惧来自缺乏了解。核能作为一种新兴能源,缺乏的并不是理论支持,关键在于其安全性和经济性。虽然出现多起核泄露事件,但是相比起利用化石能源之危害,其伤亡率是很低的。核与传统的化石能源相比,利用核能如同乘坐飞机,虽然一旦发生事故,造成的伤亡很大,但安全性还是远远超过乘坐火车与汽车等交通工具。

综上所述,公共危机的发生发展是有生命周期的,通常会经历发生、发展和消亡的阶段,在这个运动过程中,依照突发公共事件的表现形式及发展态势,基本上可以划分为三个阶段,即事前、事中、事后三个阶段。

3  应急管理体系的设计、运行与保障

    与公共危机相对应,政府应急管理也是一个完整的过程,需要针对事件不同的发展阶段采取相应的应急管理策略和措施。这个完整的应急管理过程包括如下三个阶段:预警、响应、善后,这三个阶段是前后衔接、紧密配合、缺一不可的,共同组成政府应急管理的运作过程。

3.1 应急管理的机制设计

    政府应急管理机制的构成是一个完整的体系,是由一系列相互关联的、为实现共同目标而一起发挥功能的机制的集合。不同职能管理部门之间实现协同运作,明晰政府职能部门与机构的相关职能,优化整合各种社会资源,发挥整体功效,保证整个应急管理过程的协调有序进行。

1)统一指挥的应急管理机制

由于参与政府应急管理的人员和力量来自各个方面,包括交通、通信、消防、信息、搜救、食品、公共设施、公众救护、物资支持、医疗服务和政府其他部门的人员,以及军队、武装警察官兵等,有的时候还有志愿者人员参加,因此,在政府应急管理过程中,配合特别重要。例如,围绕福岛核电站事故,日本首相官邸、东京电力公司、直属经济产业省的原子能安全保安院之间相互不信任和缺乏统一领导导致了核电站事故处理工作的混乱。

    我国的应急管理模式基本实行单一事件为主、分部门管理的模式,各自为政、各自为战。一旦某一重大突发公共事件发生例如SARS、雪灾、洪灾或地震等来临,政府便成立一个临时性的领导指挥机构,负责指挥突发公共事件应急处理工作,处理完毕后,相应的指挥机构也就取消。这种管理模式虽然在应急管理过程中发挥了一定作用,但由于缺少政府直接领导的、常设的、专门的应急管理机构,缺少统一指挥原则,缺乏系统性、稳定性和规范性,致使应急处理工作职责不清,应急救援力量分散,不能有效配合,应急反应迟缓,部门协调和应急决策的贯彻实施不力,直接影响了应急管理工作的有效性。享利·法约尔指出在任何情况下,都不会有适应双重指挥的社会组织。在整个人类社会中,在工业、商业、军队、家庭、国家机构中,双重指挥经常是冲突的根源。政府应急管理一方面要建立健全高度集中、职责明确的指挥体系;另一方面,政府部门要借助技术的力量,建立起统一的应急指挥平台,只有这样,才能广泛动员和组织社会力量,战胜各种突发公共事件。

  2)多功能的应急管理机制

    基于突发事件的生命周期,功能齐全要求政府应急管理机制不仅具有应急预警功能,还要具有应急响应功能和应急善后功能;同时,功能齐全的应急管理机制要对不同类型、成因不同的突发事件能够进行有效防范和处理,不能只局限于对某一些突发事件的管理,要能应对各种不同类型、不同级别的突发事件。要想构建功能齐全的政府应急管理机制,必须要充分利用信息技术的力量,积极运用先进的技术力量改善政府应急管理的手段。

 3)反应迅速的应急管理机制

    法国伟大的启蒙思想家孟德斯鸠有“行政贵乎迅速”之说。紧急状态下,首要目标是控制事态的蔓延,把突发事件控制在一定范围内,最大可能地保护人民群众的生命财产安全。政府应急管理机构必须以最快的速度启动应急预案,调集训练有素的专业人员,动用必要的应急处理设备,第一时间赶赴事发现场进行紧急处理。根据国外研究表明,公共危机持续时间平均8周半。没有应变计划的危机,要比有应变计划的危机长2.5倍,也就是21.25周。危机后遗症的波及时间,平均为8周,没有应变计划的危机,也比有应变计划的危机长2.5倍,达20周。

4)前瞻性的应急管理机制

    应急管理贵在预防,要坚持预防为主的原则,只有增强忧患意识,坚持预防与应急相结合,常态与非常态相结合,做好应对突发公共事件的各项准备工作,才能做到防微杜渐,处变不惊,防患于未然。政府应急管理必须依靠科技,加强公共安全科学研究和技术开发,采用先进的监测、预测、预警、预防和应急处置技术及设施,提高应对突发公共事件的科技水平和反应能力。

3.2 应急管理的运行机制

    应急管理的运行机制包括应急预警机制、应急响应机制和应急善后机制。

1)应急预警机制

    应急预警是指以先进的信息技术平台,通过预测和仿真等技术对突发公共事件发生发展的态势进行有效的监测,收集有关突发事件的征兆,通过一定的科学方法、技术进行分析处理、判断,并发出确切的警报,使政府和民众提前了解突发事件发生发展的状态,以便及时采取应对策略,防止或消除不利后果的一系列活动。在政府应急监测过程中,要注意突发公共事件的类型,及时了解情况的差异,以适当的方式对这些差异做出反应;监测信息的预报要严格执行和切实落实各项工作制度和要求,及时、准确报送信息,不得瞒报、缓报和谎报;预警信息的发布要及时、准确,通过各种主流媒体、权威渠道进行,要在“正确的时间把正确的信息传递给正确的人”;同时要积极采取各种行之有效的预防措施,尽可能地避免事件的发生。应急预警是政府应急管理的首要阶段,其目的是为了有效地预防和避免突发公共事件的发生。一个完整的应急预警机制应包括四个基本环节,即预测、预报、预警和预防。

2)应急响应机制

   响应是政府应急管理运行机制的第二个阶段,也就是对突发公共事件发生后所作出的反应及采取的行动。例如,在灾区往往有关盗窃、杀人、抢劫、强奸或猥亵事件。应急响应的目标就是要控制和消除突发公共事件的危害。在应急响应过程中,要根据事件的严重性和紧急程度,针对性地启动相应的应急预案,做出不同的应急响应。日本大地震发生后有关灾区治安情况及核电站事故的谣言在网上扩散,日本警察厅透露,网上出现的有关灾区的谣言包括公路的限制通行被解除,职业犯罪者已进入灾区发生了杀人和暴力案,一个人无法外出等恶性内容。还有的谣言称福岛第一核电站方圆30公里以内地区外国人盗窃团伙活动猖獗,警方实施网络监控则受到好评。

公共危机之群体性事件的处理方式不同,则后果迥异。例如,核泄漏后日本连续爆发数次百人规模的反核游行。期间由全日本学生自治会总联合发起的东电抗议行动游行,在东京电力总部门前与警察发生冲突,游行组织者有3人被警方以违反东京公安条例为由逮捕。由于舆论普遍同情示威者,日本政府陷入被动局面。

3)应急善后机制

    应急善后机制是指突发公共事件善后处理的组织及其相互作用关系。应急善后工作主要包括事后调查评估、事后恢复、事后重建等三个方面的内容。要建立健全突发公共事件的调查评估制度。突发公共事件应急处置工作结束后,要及时客观公正地对事件发生及其处置工作进行全面的调查和评估,通过调查评估,总结经验教训,进一步完善应急预案、应急处置工作体系和工作机制。

3.3 应急管理的保障机制

   政府应急管理高效、有序进行,离不开应急保障机制的建立。应急保障机制是指在政府应急管理过程中,为保障突发事件的成功应对而建立起来的一系列制度与措施。基于突发事件的特点,政府应急管理需要建立起三个层次的应急保障机制,确保政府应急管理有效实现。

1)应急法制保障机制

    管理学家德鲁克指出:“权力必须具有合法性,否则,它就只有力量而无威信,只有强权而无正义。”为保障政府应急管理的合法进行,需要建立起一套完整的突发事件应急法制。所谓突发事件应急法制,即公共应急法制,是指突发事件应对机制的法律体系。简而言之,应急法制就是应对突发事件或紧急状态的各种法律规范和原则的总称。

2)应急资源保障机制

    政府应急管理的运行,需要整合一切人力、物力、财力以及信息等资源,这是政府应急管理有效开展的基础。目前我国应急物资的建设,在资源配置方式和资源管理机制上还存在不少问题,亟需加强应急物资的整合,实现应急物资的科学储备和有效调配,最大程度实现应急物资的共建共享。为了保证应急管理的有效开展,需要充足的财政投入作支撑。应急资金的建设,需要扩大应急资金的渠道,探讨应急资金的储备、支出等方面的内容。

3)应急技术保障机制

    应急技术保障机制的构建,主要包括三方面的工作:一是应急设施的建设;二是先进技术在应急管理中的应用;三是应急系统的开发。首先,应急设施是政府应急管理有效运行的基石。构建应急设施一要注意应急设施的建设与电子政务相结合;二要注意应急设施建设与日常管理基础设施相结合。其次,应急管理的高效、有序进行,离不开科技的支撑。政府应急管理要充分发挥高科技优势,积极利用各种现代高新科技来武装自己,提高政府应急管理的科技含量,提高应急管理的能力和水平。为此,需要加强应急管理的科学研究,积极推动应急科技创新,加快改善应急装备等。最后,应急系统的开发是政府应急管理的核心工作。应急系统的种类有很多,根据其功能不同,可以分为应急指挥调度系统、应急信息管理系统、应急决策支持系统、应急联动系统等多种系统。在应急系统的建设过程中,要加强系统开发的战略规划和标准化建设,实现各种系统的相互兼容和互联互通,否则会形成一个个的应急孤岛。

4  中国核电发展的政策建议

首先,在核电工业发展方面,具体建议有五:

1)立即停止建立内陆轻水堆核电站

无需讳言,中央政府与地方政府之政策博弈从未停息,希望各级领导以国家民族利益为重,适度牺牲地方利益放弃内陆核电之设想。事关中华民族存亡,故反对内陆建立水堆理由如下:一是中国人口非常密集,一旦内陆河流、湖泊和地下水等水体发生高放射性污染,其后果不堪设想;二是中国内陆淡水资源已经非常稀缺,长江、黄河已经被众多堤坝拦截、河水被抽走、灌溉沙漠地区大片农田等,枯水期逐年延长,核电站不仅耗水巨大,而且水体升温破坏生态环境。因此,呼吁立即停止建设内陆水堆核电站,转迁沿海以免遭受更大的经济损失。

2)建议量体裁衣发展压水堆核电全球目前保有的已探明的可采天然铀资源500万吨,国际市场上天然铀的供需渐趋紧张,价格逐年飙升。据专家计算,仅美国和法国家已于数十年间建立了天然铀供应基地,其核电装机容量分别约为1亿kW6千万kW,每年核电换料各约需1.9万吨和1万吨的天然铀。鉴于天然铀有限,以天然铀中的铀-235作为燃料的压水堆、沸水堆核电站总装机容量将受到制约。中国数十座已有和在建的核电站,堆型主要是沸水堆、重水堆和压水堆。即使压水堆不存在安全问题,其经济效益也需重新考虑。在规划上,应当可获得多少天然铀原料,就发展多少压水堆核电站,而不足部分就用快中子增殖堆核电站补充。在技术上,启用快中子增殖堆核电站,将天然铀中大量的铀-238转换成钚-239,可以继续作为核燃料。因此,建议基于我国在全球目前保有的已探明的可采天然铀资源供应上可能取得的份额,控制压水堆核电站的数量与规模。

3)禁止国际资本与民营企业进入核电相关行业

    未来核电产业将是一场国际博弈,涉及政治、经济、外交等诸多方面,一般民营企业很难驾驭。此外,国难临头,民营公司很难承担起相应的社会责任。例如,日本核泄漏事件之深层次原因是体制问题,当时注入海水是控制核电站危机的关键所在,但是东电公司不愿意使用海水,因为注入海水可能会使核反应堆永久无法运行。核电燃料的采购、运输、使用以及核废料处理都是关乎国计民生之大事。因此,建议立法禁止国际资本与民营企业进入核电以及相关行业。4)加强中国核产业的安全管理在市场经济之潮流下,国际资本、民营资本都意图染指中国核产业,作者对此不以为然。中国之放射性污染问题已经非常严重,不仅放射源管理混乱,而且回收处理机制不健全。我国危险放射性化学品管理及应急体系亟待加强。我国放射性物品泄漏事故、放射源丢失、被盗事件、失控事故不断增多,许多科研单位、医院和私营化工企业中从业人员素质不高、未经过系统培训、规章制度不落实及运输单位不按规定申办准运手续等违规行为是重要原因。据不完全统计,我国放射性废物已经超过7500立方米,没有收购的放射源高达到12万个,散落民间。建议我国危险放射源安全管理亟待加强,否则后果堪忧。

5)建议加快中国核废料处置库建设

    高放射性核废料处置库是一项耗资巨大的工程。以美国为例,其尤卡山核废料处置库工程预算达437亿美元。北欧国家瑞典为了建设核废料处置库也花费了200多亿人民币。近日欧盟领导人呼吁尽快通过核废物地下埋藏计划,以避免放射性废燃料棒积聚。在核废料处置库建成之前,所有的高放射性核废料只能暂存在核电站的硼水池中。美国原计划在1998年建成高放射性核废料处置库,但由于技术难度过高,尽管美国政府投入了大量财力、人力进行研究,最终还是不得不将建成时间延长至2010年。这一结果直接导致了美国40多个核电站储存核废料的水池全部爆满,造成了巨大经济损失并使核电站业主状告美国能源部。根据中国核电未来规模,估计中国高放射性核废料处置库将耗资数百亿人民币。中国核废料处置库是否容量足以容纳中国核工业未来产生的所有高放射性核废料值得质疑。建议中国应从中汲取教训,加快建设核废料处置库。在政府应急管理方面,具体建议有四:

1)建立政府应急指挥平台

    从流程来看,应急管理需要包括预警、响应、善后、保障等,彼此之间的协调配合进行。从主体来看,应急管理不仅需要政府部门上下级之间的纵向协调,而且需要政府不同部门之间的横向协调;而且需要政府部门与政府部门之间的协调;甚至需要与媒体、公众、国外政府及国际组织等之间的协调。建议设立国家、省(区、直辖市)、地(市)、县(市)、企业等各级综合应急平台及专项应急平台(例如核电)的设计和研发中所开展的工作,以及对应急平台建设的要求和须注意的问题,对应急平台如何满足“平时与战争”结合的使用要求。

2)建立政府灾难信息系统

    核泄漏等作为扩散性强的危险源对经济发展和人民生命安全造成极大的损害。为了最大限度地降低各类灾害造成的损失,各级政府部门不但采取了提高全民防灾救灾能力、建立生态防护网和提供核电地区现有工程标准等防灾措施,还通过建立海陆空立体环境数据采集系统、开展灾害机理研究和建立灾难信息系统等手段来加强相关灾害监测、预警和发布。各级政府平时要注意保存居民档案和电子信息,以备灾难后迅速把握人口信息,便于抢险救人。此次,人口管理显得非常重要。

3)建立放射性污染应急救援体系

    建议建立核泄露事故应急救援体系,体系建设的基本思路是建立国家、省、地级市、县和企业5级核泄露事故应急救援体系;以专业防护队伍为主体,整合现有的环境保护、防化部队等应急救援力量,实现对事故快速响应和高效救援的目的;建立和健全我国事故应急医疗抢救中心;组建区域事故联防基地;建立和健全国家级别的事故应急救援通讯信息保障、专家组、应急咨询专线等保障系统。建议彻底清查流散社会的放射源,在立法制度保证下,建立一套原子能之研究、利用、回收、处理或再利用机制。

4)积极参与核电相关之国际事务

   日本东京电力公司将超标100倍的放射性污水排入海洋的行为是极其不负责任的。对此,韩国驻日大使馆立即就东京电力排放放射性污水问题向日本外务省转达了韩国政府立场,认为日本已经触犯国际法,而中国是否应当对此有所反应不得而知。在科学研究方面,具体建议有三:

1)国家继续支持核能科技研究

当今人类社会生活中,电力之比重依次为火电、水能、核电、风能、氢能以及其他替代能源。任何能源都不是绝对安全稳定的,核能存在泄漏问题;太阳能存在设备元件的污染;水电存在生态破坏等。在人类目前所能利用的能源中,尚无绝对安全和清洁的能源。目前中国2/3的工厂能源还主要靠燃煤。传统能源如煤炭、石油、火电等的开发和利用,成就了中国经济高速发展的同时,严重地影响了人民赖以生存的自然环境。因此,中国发展核电能源是不可避免之趋势。

2)普及核电相关科技知识

科学之分野导致一些科学工作者受到专业局限,甚至谈核色变。其实,自然界放射性物质很多,那些能自然的向外辐射能量,发出射线的物质。原子质量很高的金属都具有放射性,如钚、铀等放射性物质放出的射线有三种,分别是α射线、β射线和γ射线。和平利用原子能技术落后,如食品消毒、物种变异、放射治疗、宝石加工、考古鉴定、放射性药物学等亟待发展。

3)开展应急管理之交叉学科合作研究

    公共危机之应急管理中的科学问题涉及管理科学、信息科学、工程科学与生命科学等多学科领域,是典型的跨层次、跨部门和综合性很强的问题,需要不同学科间开拓、交叉、渗透与融合,为解决此类问题的关键技术提供新的思路、理论和方法。突发公共事件种类较多,应重点关注各类突发公共事件应急管理中的共性和综合性需求,抽取提炼基础性的科学问题,开展前瞻性、开放性和原创性的基础科学研究,可以结合典型和迫切需要解决的实际问题开展研究,然后再研究跨领域和跨部门的问题。核电发展的重要性与安全性相悖,这是人类社会所面临的难题。以公共危机之应急管理视角,审慎地选择主导能源不仅是国家经济发展的路径选择,而且是人类社会延续的生存选择。上述核电工业发展、政府应急管理和科学研究三个方面的一些粗浅建议,仅供相关决策部门参考。


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发表日期: 2013/10/31 13:38  更新日期: 2013/10/31 13:38
 Re: 从日本核泄漏谈公共危机与应急管理
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发表日期: 2014/4/15 10:34  更新日期: 2014/4/15 10:34
 Re: 从日本核泄漏谈公共危机与应急管理
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